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Flip PA-18: From Christian Crusader Lion To Lamb


stevenkesslar
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Time to get out your credit cards, folks.

 

The next flippable Congressional seat is PA-18 - right in the heart of Trump country.

 

 

Conor Lamb, like Doug Jones, is a prosecutor. He is a Marine from the Pittsburgh suburbs. He wants to do something about jobs, health care, and the heroin epidemic.

 

https://conorlamb.com/meet-conor/

 

https://www.salon.com/2017/12/27/first-special-election-of-2018-is-in-trump-country-and-democrats-are-drooling/

 

Saccone scored an upset in a blue district when he won his state house seat in 2010 but since then has pushed a right-wing Christian agenda. By his own admission, Saccone has no concept of "separation of church & state.” He has proposed bills to allow the posting of “In God we Trust” at public schools and has urged all schools to read the Bible during class time. He sponsored a non-binding resolution to declare 2012 as the "Year of the Bible.”

 

Lamb, who completed his active duty service in the Marine Corps in 2013, comes from a prominent political family in Pennsylvania. His uncle, Michael Lamb, is the Pittsburgh city controller, and his grandfather, Tom Lamb, was the Democratic majority leader in the state Senate back in the 1970s. As a Marine lawyer, Lamb prosecuted a Naval Academy instructor who had raped female service members. As an assistant U.S. attorney in Pittsburgh for three years, he helped to establish a Department of Justice office focused on combating the opioid crisis — something Democrats hope to highlight in a state and region that have faced soaring overdose rates.

 

Trump carried this district in 2016 by 19 points (58 to 39). He carried Alabama by 28 points. This is doable.

 

The results from Alabama are already in. Republican House incumbents are abandoning Congress in droves, making it easier for Democrats to pick up seats this Fall. In California, retiring Republicans Royce and Issa are the latest signs of the fact that Republicans are running scared ... and actually not running at all.

 

It should be a close race. Even if Lamb comes close, he wins. And if he wins, it's a wipe out.

 

The one poll so far shows Lamb behind by 11 points, with two months to go. Polls taken two to three months before the Alabama race showed Moore ahead by anywhere from 11 to 22 points. Granted, Roy Moore was a one of a kind loser. But what Jones did, and Lamb appears to be trying to do, is light a fire and wake people up. It worked with Jones. And it can work with Lamb, too.

 

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/lamb-for-congress-1

 

I gave $50 and I plan to donate $15 a week. (Act Blue offered weekly donations for Jones. With Lamb, it only appears to offer monthly donations).

 

This is another important one, fueled by a candidate who can win and appears to have a lot of integrity.

Edited by stevenkesslar
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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/11/trump-special-election-pennsylvania-pittsburgh-336502

 

Trump races to head off another special election debacle

 

"It is unusual for a White House to expend so much political capital on a single House race, particularly in what's typically seen as a safe Republican district. But the involvement underscores the high stakes confronting the administration as it approaches a midterm election in which the party’s hold on the House majority is in grave danger. A loss in the working class Pennsylvania district, which the president won by 20 percentage points, would show that few GOP seats are safe."

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Lamb looks pretty damn good for the Dems. A purple (leaning blue) state where he is a former Marine and from a prominent political family. Moreover, the appeal to female voters regarding his service work. I, obviously, have learned to never say never but this looks pretty good for the Democrats.

[sIGPIC][/sIGPIC] Make America Sane Again

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One more geeky note on the metrics of this race.

 

https://ballotpedia.org/The_Cook_Political_Report's_Partisan_Voter_Index

 

The Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) actually proved to be pretty reliable in pointing to the underlying trend in the 2017 special elections.

 

At the time Jon Ossoff ran last year, in GA-6, the Cook PVI showed that district had a generic Republican lean of 8 points. In early June 2017, the average of polls showed the generic Congressional lean to be about 6 points in favor of Democrats. So that would suggest that a solid Democrat would lose a race to a solid Republican by about 2 points. Ossoff did slightly worse than that. He had no experience and didn't even live in the district, and Republican Karen Handel was a relatively moderate and experienced Republican. It may have also mattered that the attempted murder of Congressional Republicans a few days before the election brought some Republicans back home.

 

At the time, Vox said this was bad news for Democratic prospects in 2018:

 

Why Jon Ossoff’s loss is bad news for Democrats’ 2018 hopes

 

https://www.vox.com/2017/6/20/15843864/jon-ossoff-special-election

 

In fact, the race was an early indicator of a rising Democratic tide.

 

In Alabama, the 7 Congressional districts have an average Republican lean of about 14 points, according to the Cook PVI. So in December, when the national Congressional lean was about + 11 Democratic, you would have expected Doug Jones to lose in a tight race. That's exactly what the last pre-election polls predicted. Since polls are modeled on past elections, one thing they missed was that Republican turnout was particularly low, and Democratic turnout was extraordinary. Turnout put Jones over the top.

 

Cook rates PA-18 as having a Republican lean of 11 points. Meanwhile, the current national Democratic lean is 11.2 points. So this race should be very close. It helps Lamb that he is a charismatic moderate from a seasoned local political family. It also helps that his opponent is a Christian crusader - not as crazy as Moore, but hardly centrist.

 

Like in Alabama, turnout will make a huge difference. Which is why donating and volunteering is so important.

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I also think that there seems to be a state dynamic where the parties in the states are fighting really hard. I think that will make turn out higher among the groups that really push to win. Throw in the fact that Trump is going to support the Republican and that can only be bad news for them.

[sIGPIC][/sIGPIC] Make America Sane Again

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Time to get out your credit cards, folks.

 

The next flippable Congressional seat is PA-18 - right in the heart of Trump country.

 

 

Conor Lamb, like Doug Jones, is a prosecutor. He is a Marine from the Pittsburgh suburbs. He wants to do something about jobs, health care, and the heroin epidemic.

 

https://conorlamb.com/meet-conor/

 

https://www.salon.com/2017/12/27/first-special-election-of-2018-is-in-trump-country-and-democrats-are-drooling/

 

Saccone scored an upset in a blue district when he won his state house seat in 2010 but since then has pushed a right-wing Christian agenda. By his own admission, Saccone has no concept of "separation of church & state.” He has proposed bills to allow the posting of “In God we Trust” at public schools and has urged all schools to read the Bible during class time. He sponsored a non-binding resolution to declare 2012 as the "Year of the Bible.”

 

Lamb, who completed his active duty service in the Marine Corps in 2013, comes from a prominent political family in Pennsylvania. His uncle, Michael Lamb, is the Pittsburgh city controller, and his grandfather, Tom Lamb, was the Democratic majority leader in the state Senate back in the 1970s. As a Marine lawyer, Lamb prosecuted a Naval Academy instructor who had raped female service members. As an assistant U.S. attorney in Pittsburgh for three years, he helped to establish a Department of Justice office focused on combating the opioid crisis — something Democrats hope to highlight in a state and region that have faced soaring overdose rates.

 

Trump carried this district in 2016 by 19 points (58 to 39). He carried Alabama by 28 points. This is doable.

 

The results from Alabama are already in. Republican House incumbents are abandoning Congress in droves, making it easier for Democrats to pick up seats this Fall. In California, retiring Republicans Royce and Issa are the latest signs of the fact that Republicans are running scared ... and actually not running at all.

 

It should be a close race. Even if Lamb comes close, he wins. And if he wins, it's a wipe out.

 

The one poll so far shows Lamb behind by 11 points, with two months to go. Polls taken two to three months before the Alabama race showed Moore ahead by anywhere from 11 to 22 points. Granted, Roy Moore was a one of a kind loser. But what Jones did, and Lamb appears to be trying to do, is light a fire and wake people up. It worked with Jones. And it can work with Lamb, too.

 

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/lamb-for-congress-1

 

I gave $50 and I plan to donate $15 a week. (Act Blue offered weekly donations for Jones. With Lamb, it only appears to offer monthly donations).

 

This is another important one, fueled by a candidate who can win and appears to have a lot of integrity.

 

Your boy is right cute, but he aint gonna win. A few stemwinders by the boss will sew up districts like this.

“Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?”

 

-The Marx Brothers

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Your boy is right cute, but he aint gonna win. A few stemwinders by the boss will sew up districts like this.

 

I'm counting on it.

 

If he can fuck it up in Alabama, he can fuck up anywhere.

 

http://i.perezhilton.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/donald-trump-supporters-dont-know(1).gif

 

Thank you, oh Great and Mighty and Wise Donald J. Trump!

 

Thank you, my Wonderful Leader, my Knight, my Light in Liberal Satanic Darkness!

 

Thank you, oh Perfect and Glorious Leader - My Salvation, My King!

 

Thank you, President Donald J. Trump!

 

Thank you, from your Humblest Servant, your Slave!

 

Thank you, Oh Great And Mighty Godlike President Trump, for MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!!!!

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Your boy is right cute, but he aint gonna win. A few stemwinders by the boss will sew up districts like this.

 

Darlin' you mean playin' the tape of the Indiana Carrier workers talking about how the jobs that they were promised would stay open now going to Mexico. That will help the Trump candidate. Is Pennsylvania considered a shithole state?

[sIGPIC][/sIGPIC] Make America Sane Again

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It is hard to estimate potential Democratic strength in the 18th, because Tim Murphy ran unopposed in his last two elections. Let's hope that some of the Republican voters in the district will be disgusted that Murphy turned out to be a hypocrite who had to resign because he turned out to support abortion when it was in his personal interest, and will be suspicious of another holier-than-thou Republican "Christian" nominee.

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Well, that part of Pennsylvania pretty much is Alabama, so....

 

I'm shocked (or should I say shucked) that a college educated woman of virtue such as yourself is so shitty at geography.

 

It's Pennsyltucky, Ma'am. That's a long way from Alabama.

 

CrPYKj_UEAA6qd0.jpg

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Sweet baby Jesus. Please don’t tease me like this...

 

You have to be more specific.

 

Are you suggesting that you want to have sex with our handsome, athletic Marine? Or simply that you don't want to be teased with the unlikely possibility that he might win?

 

If it's the former, please do recall that he is a Marine. He's probably killed people. He may be kind of rough in bed.

 

Are you sure you can handle him?

 

http://www.timesonline.com/storyimage/PA/20171120/NEWS/171129796/AR/0/AR-171129796.jpg

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You have to be more specific.

 

Are you suggesting that you want to have sex with our handsome, athletic Marine? Or simply that you don't want to be teased with the unlikely possibility that he might win?

 

If it's the former, please do recall that he is a Marine. He's probably killed people. He may be kind of rough in bed.

 

Are you sure you can handle him?

 

http://www.timesonline.com/storyimage/PA/20171120/NEWS/171129796/AR/0/AR-171129796.jpg

Well, now that you have planted that sexy idea in my mind, can’t it be both?

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Believe it or not I heard a Republican strategist (and they usually have drunk the Koolaid) say that the numbers are not "looking good" and that the Democrats probably take back the House (Impeachment) of (Impeachment) Representatives. Well, not the Impeachment part. So just have to look at the Senate seats that are up in the air. Too bad that that old hag in Utah is resigning and Romney is moving (the second part, not the first part).

[sIGPIC][/sIGPIC] Make America Sane Again

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Actually, Steven, the 18th is part of the red area that is labeled "NOT Pennsyltucky."

 

Exactly.

 

Tell that to the dumb sow who works for the moron orangutan. She's the one who started with this Alabama thing. And I won't deal with her. I mean, I'm a pretty open minded guy, really. But this whole bestiality thing is a bit too much for me. So I'm not going there.

 

lossless-page1-1280px-Pennsylvania_US_Congressional_District_18_%28since_2013%29.tif.png

 

The fact that PA-18 is neither Alabama nor Pennsyltucky, technically, is more good news for Lamb.

 

One thing we also learned in 2017 - in Virginia - is that Democrats do not necessarily do well in the really hard core Trump areas. Most of the House of Delegates seats that the Democrats picked up in Virginia were ones that Hillary did relatively well in in 2016. The Virginia Democrats did not carry the Trump small town/rural base - which is why they could not really build a majority. (Although the Democrats got 53 % of the vote, compared to 44 % for Republicans. Gerrymandering!)

 

http://www.dailyyonder.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/VA_Gov_Election_2017_map-1.png

 

http://www.dailyyonder.com/gops-rural-numbers-virginia-slip-2016-not-much/2017/11/08/22240/

 

GOP’S RURAL NUMBERS IN VIRGINIA SLIP ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM 2016

 

Democrat Ralph Northam built his 9-point victory with slight gains over Clinton’s 2016 presidential performance. But rural Virginia is more Republican today than it was during the last governor’s race of 2013.

 

In Alabama, part of what put Jones over the top is outreach and persuasion to centrist or centrist/right suburban women.

 

So we can only hope that Lamb does well with women in the Pittsburgh burbs.

 

And as open minded a guy as I am, that is why I am completely begging LoveNDino to refrain from pursuing his sick, fetishistic fantasy of being tied up, whipped, and raped by Conor Lamb. I mean, I'm sure it would be fun and all. In a scandalous sort of way.

 

But it would probably fuck up his chances of winning the election.

 

Maybe you can just have sex with the sow instead????

 

Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-via-NBC.jpg

Edited by stevenkesslar
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I'm shocked (or should I say shucked) that a college educated woman of virtue such as yourself is so shitty at geography.

 

It's Pennsyltucky, Ma'am. That's a long way from Alabama.

 

CrPYKj_UEAA6qd0.jpg

 

Let me just first of all say that I almost resent Mr. Kesslar for his patronizing attitude that he has to teach me about Pennsylvania geography. That said, I stand corrected. Yet we remain confident that the Pennsylvania 18th will express its support of the president's efforts in making America great again.

“Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?”

 

-The Marx Brothers

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I don't remember who the pundit was a few years ago who described Pennsylvania as "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between."

 

Jesus Fucking Christ! Some academic you are!

 

Do I have to do all the work around here?

 

http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-pennsylvania-is-philadelphia-and-pittsburgh-with-alabama-in-between-james-carville-217208.jpg

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Jesus Fucking Christ! Some academic you are!

 

Do I have to do all the work around here?

 

http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-pennsylvania-is-philadelphia-and-pittsburgh-with-alabama-in-between-james-carville-217208.jpg

I'm trying to watch a tennis match and make dinner while I am jumping back and forth between these threads--I don't have time to do a search at the same time.

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  • 1 month later...

On Tuesday, 2-27-18, David Wasserman, the House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, changed the rating on the PA-18 race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up," writing by way of explanation:

 

"For over a month, private polls on both sides have shown Saccone leading in the low-to-mid single digits, often within the margin of error. Today, the candidates are better known, but Lamb hasn't let Republicans nationalize the race and Saccone still hasn't pulled away. The contest is exceedingly close, and Republican operatives are preparing to spin a loss as the result of an unfavorable candidate contrast."

This from Chris Cillizza (CNN):

 

From the start, Republican insiders were worried about the candidate contrast: Rick Saccone is a 60-something-year-old state legislator, Conor Lamb is a 30-something Marine.

 

That mismatch in candidate quality wouldn't have been enough to turn this into a barn-burner. But when coupled with an unpopular Republican president, the political climate might just be turning toxic on Saccone.

 

It's clear Republicans are on the defensive and are prepping for a loss.

 

Republicans can try to spin a loss in Pennsylvania any way they like. But if Democrats win a district that Trump carried by 20 points, the worry coursing through Republican ranks today will rapidly transform into outright panic.

 

The election will be held on March 13.

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