Australia Closed until Late 2022

[+ tassojunior]

WTF

https://www.godsavethepoints.com/australia-closing-until-2022-tourism-minister/

 

It’s time to put the sunscreen away, at least for now. Australia has confirmed rumors that the current plan to reopen the beloved country for inbound travel will be virtually non existent until late into 2022, and that’s if things continue to progress well.

[mike carey]

WTF indeed, that's certainly starting to emerge into the debate here, but it's still very quiet, except for the inbound international tourism and higher education sectors, previously two of our biggest export earners. Over 40% of Australians do not hold a passport, so that's a portion of the population that won't care about this news.

 

Some context here, though, this flurry of announcements (from a government that is starting to be seen as a government of announcements, not of follow through) has been in the context of the Federal budget that was brought down on Tuesday evening here. So the discussion about the border is mainly as one of the assumptions that underlie the budget. That is because whether the border is open or closed will affect the economy. The budget overwhelmingly relied on very cautious assumptions about the economy, so they have assumed low levels of growth, low iron ore prices, and a closed border. The strategy seems to be under-promise and over-deliver with an election due by next May but can be called any time from August this year. If they can announce better news in, say April, that would suit them just fine. With that in mind, I am reading this travel prediction as being the government's view of what is the worst case scenario. Time will tell.

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

As long as I've got reruns of Real Housewives of Melbourne & Sydney to catch up on, I can daydream until the gates reopen.

[+ dupontversDC]

Lots of the good things in the last few months have arrived earlier than expected. Wouldn't surprise me if they revisit this after EU opens up to vaccinated travelers and there's some real world data for them to look at.

[LD19847]

Based on previous comments by the Australian PM, the expectation is that the opening of the border will happen very gradually.

 

2022 is a realistic timeframe. Qantas has cancelled all international flights outside of New Zealand until late December.

 

As the UK has found, where good progress has been made with vaccination but was too late in stopping travel from India to allow a new variant to spread, international travel restrictions have to be maintained until the population has reached herd immunity.

[+ tassojunior]

ironic how a conservative gov't in Australia likes to keep foreigners out while a liberal one in the US feels the same.

 

Trump never built his wall but Australia's got the world's biggest moat.

[Bargara Leatherboy]

As an Aussie with a holiday home in Bali, I am very frustrated with this, however I understand the reasons behind this policy.

 

Australia is basically COVID Free, compared to the US UK EU and parts of Asia.

 

I have many friends who were international Cabin Crew who no longer have jobs.

 

From a domestic travel point of view, that is difficult too.

 

We have experienced state borders being closed, Western Australia has been closed for a long time, the border between NSW and Victoria for approx 150 days, the NSW Queensland border was closed for what seemed like for ever.

 

We are currently in Brisbane and heading further north by road today, a trip we tried to do last November and we are currently scoping our retirement home.

 

Meanwhile Domestic tourism has taken off, Qantas is reporting heavier loads for domestic travel than ever before, and from my personal experience, the cost of accomodation has at least doubled due to demand.

 

For the travel we had planned for 2020, we are currently sitting on credits in excess of $6K, the bulk of that credit is with an international airline (not Australian based) which is valid until December 2022, so hopefully that will be extended.

 

Its never as simple as it seems

[+ tassojunior]

As an Aussie with a holiday home in Bali, I am very frustrated with this, however I understand the reasons behind this policy.

 

Australia is basically COVID Free, compared to the US UK EU and parts of Asia.

 

I have many friends who were international Cabin Crew who no longer have jobs.

 

From a domestic travel point of view, that is difficult too.

 

We have experienced state borders being closed, Western Australia has been closed for a long time, the border between NSW and Victoria for approx 150 days, the NSW Queensland border was closed for what seemed like for ever.

 

We are currently in Brisbane and heading further north by road today, a trip we tried to do last November and we are currently scoping our retirement home.

 

Meanwhile Domestic tourism has taken off, Qantas is reporting heavier loads for domestic travel than ever before, and from my personal experience, the cost of accomodation has at least doubled due to demand.

 

For the travel we had planned for 2020, we are currently sitting on credits in excess of $6K, the bulk of that credit is with an international airline (not Australian based) which is valid until December 2022, so hopefully that will be extended.

 

Its never as simple as it seems

 

well, if it ends up killing the rest of us, Australia becomes the new superpower ?

 

always look for the silver lining.

Edited May 15, 2021 by tassojunior

[mike carey]

For the travel we had planned for 2020, we are currently sitting on credits in excess of $6K, the bulk of that credit is with an international airline (not Australian based) which is valid until December 2022, so hopefully that will be extended.

Thankfully my <$5K credit is with Qantas and is valid until December 2023, so I'm less worried about it. I should have plenty of time for the border to open, but I'll be able to use it for domestic flights if the clock starts to run down on it.

[+ sniper]

Is it really going to take Australia that long to immunize their population? 

[mike carey]

23 hours ago, sniper said:

Is it really going to take Australia that long to immunize their population? 

Who knows, the government isn't setting targets for when the population will be vaccinated or even for the rates of vaccination from week to week, they are worried that they will be seen to have 'failed' if the targets aren't met. They are not even saying what percentage needs to be vaccinated for borders to open. That said, the pace of the vaccination roll-out is picking up. Their refusal to talk about the way out of isolation is starting to wear thin with much, although not all, of the population.

[MscleLovr]

The BBC has this comment today on the delayed response by Australia 

What's gone wrong with Australia's vaccine rollout? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56825920

 

[mike carey]

11 minutes ago, MscleLovr said:

The BBC has this comment today on the delayed response by Australia 

What's gone wrong with Australia's vaccine rollout? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56825920

The vaccine roll out here has been pretty bad, and today's change limiting AZ to over 60s rather than over 50s will compound that. It is a significant political issue here.

[Kippy]

Does this mean I will never get to see "The Seekers" perform live again?

[mike carey]

9 hours ago, Kippy said:

Does this mean I will never get to see "The Seekers" perform live again?

I'm not sure that our closed borders will affect your chances of seeing them perform live.

[mike carey]

1 hour ago, MscleLovr said:

Serious question @mike carey: what’s your considered view on when Australia might reopen its borders and permit foreign travel?

I'll answer this here rather than continue in the Palm Springs Weekend thread.

My immediate answer is, 'How long is a piece of string?', but that's not all that useful.

The answer offered in the title of this thread is probably pessimistic now (and I thought when the thread started that it was the worst case scenario), but while pessimistic late 2022 is not out of the question.

This month the government commissioned modelling on how different levels of vaccination would affect the opening of the economy and that hit on 70% and 80% of the >16yo population as gates for implementing the reduction of restrictions (not specifically the external border, but that is implied). (I heard a scientist on TV tonight say that all modelling is wrong, but some is useful.) Since then the Federal and NSW have been talking of those levels of vaccination being sufficient in themselves for phased easing of restrictions irrespective of what levels of disease there are at the time. All other state and territory governments have been saying, with increasing stridency in QLD, WA and the ACT, that those percentages of fully vaccinated people will only be one consideration in what restrictions are retained. Most of the states and territories have not said they would commit to ceasing interstate border closures, and some have said that if NSW eases its restrictions 'prematurely' they will harden their border closures to NSW.

The federal government wants to open the external border, but if many of the states persist with internal border closures we could have an open Australian external border but for it to be in effect only an open NSW external border. Will that actually happen? I really don't know, and I suspect if state governments hold to the view that it's not safe to allow travel from NSW without quarantine that might delay opening the external border but it won't stop it.

As to what all that means, I don't think there will be a meaningful reopening of Australia's borders before Q2 2022. I may be able to attend the Palm Springs weekend but I'll have to make last minute bookings to do so. Conversations here about lockdowns have been binary seemingly between locked down and no restrictions, but are becoming more nuanced. Even if states or cities are not locked down, there will still be mandatory isolation for positive cases and quarantine for close contacts (like being 'pinged' in the UK?). Once somewhere hits 70% then 80% (NSW and the ACT on current rates of vaccination) what that means to the levels of restrictions will become clearer as will the border debate.

Depending on how that pans out over the next month or two, we should see some movement on borders by the end of the year, perhaps easing restrictions on vaccinated Australians returning to the country and then on that group being permitted to leave, with one or both those classes of travel in early 2022. It will be a pyrrhic victory if only Australians who want to go to NSW can come home.

After all of that, by mid-2022 we will probably have international travel that looks broadly like the rest of the world with vaccination required and quarantine for some travellers. Recent travel to some countries may prevent travel here. What I have said above is more about the twists and diversions that could happen on the way there. One of the reasons that Australians were happy to comply, even if reluctantly in some cases, was that we could see how much worse it could be. Acceptance will drop as the rest of the world starts to appear to have returned to an apparently normal life. Our state and territory leaders are politicians, they will be able to read the room.

[mike carey]

2 hours ago, Pensant said:

From my perspective, it does seem as if NZ and Australia have overreacted, but hopefully they’re containing it.

It's not clear that we are, although it is being mitigated. Within a couple of days the NZ Health Minister conceded that the elimination strategy may have become unrealistic with Delta, and the public narrative here is much the same although not explicit. There are cases in NSW, Victoria and the ACT, and yesterday one in Queensland. The other jurisdictions are not affected and have few internal restrictions. Victoria and the ACT seem to have it under control but with some continuing spread, NSW less so and with still worrying levels of cases from unknown sources. People (and governments) are sort of holding their breath as they watch what happens as our vaccination rates start to catch up with the rest of the developed world.

[mike carey]

A good analysis of the current situation in Australia in Josh Szeps' monologue at the start of this podcast. You may remember him as one of the presenters on HuffPost TV a couple of years ago. He's since come home and works on ABC radio in Sydney. When I was writing my earlier post about when we might open our borders, I was musing about whether the likely divergence between NSW and the other states was a good or bad thing but decided to describe it without commenting on it. He makes a reasonable case that we haven't had a first wave if a 'wave' is what the US and European countries have had, so we are in a fundamentally different position of having zero background immunity from prior infection.

Now that vaccinations are here we have to have an objective to underpin whatever containment measures we take, and elimination is not a realistic one, at some stage we have to have a strategy for how we emerge into a 'vaccinated' world. His commentary is in the first 25 or so minutes.

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/are-psychedelics-the-answer-with-james-mathison/id1002920114?i=1000532295035

[MscleLovr]

Thanks for responding at length @mike carey. For some time, I’d thought that pursuing a “zero COVID” policy would not work, even in countries as distant as Australia and New Zealand.
 

My impression from various friends in NSW and VIC is that many people do not view Covid as a serious matter. I guess this will mean that you’ll have to not only rollout mass vaccination but also to change the mindset of many people. I wonder if Australians will accept that ‘herd immunity’ may never be achieved.
 

With dismay, I’ve seen on the TV News the protests in Sydney and Melbourne. My annual trips to Australia now seem a distant memory…

[mike carey]

7 minutes ago, MscleLovr said:

Thanks for responding at length @mike carey. For some time, I’d thought that pursuing a “zero COVID” policy would not work, even in countries as distant as Australia and New Zealand.

It was a good exercise in marshalling my thoughts, and as you would have seen from my later comments on that podcast I continue to think about it. Zero Covid was always going to work until it didn't, and the hope was that the 'didn't' wouldn't happen until there was a vaccine or treatment. That plan worked, except we hadn't done enough of the vaccine roll out, but they are being rolled out quickly now. But we haven't caught that 8 ball yet.

I don't think people think Covid isn't serious, it's more that they haven't thought that it was an urgent problem, although most do now. There remain sceptics, and 'we must open to save the economy' zealots but they are few. Twitter was brutal to the demonstrators and the police were inundated with the general public sending information and video to Crime Stoppers.

I share your pain on not being able to make what had been a regular trip. I had started to travel regularly, mainly to the US, and today I can't even go to Sydney.

[BuffaloKyle]

This topic reminded me of a great candid camera bit:

 

[+ tassojunior]

did the PM of NZ really tell people not to speak to their neighbors?

in the US we only do that if they're a different political party. 

[mike carey]

13 hours ago, tassojunior said:

did the PM of NZ really tell people not to speak to their neighbors?

in the US we only do that if they're a different political party. 

I haven't heard anything like that, but if she did, it wouldn't be in that sort of context. Most likely it would have bee avoid close contact with people outside your household, including your neighbours, not don't speak over your back fence.

[mike carey]

Qantas has announced its plan for resuming international flights from December. It's optimisiic, some would say unrealistic, but unlike previous plans that didn't happen, it is linked to government plans to reopen when certain vaccination milestones are reached. They relate to the percentages of the population that are fully vaccinated (and percentages of those 16 and over rather than of the whole population), so it's not based just on the airline's hopes about the easing of border restrictions.

Qantas flew one of its A380s from LAX to Dresden a few days ago, and from all accounts that is to have the cabin refurbished, and today's announcement seems to confirm that, They are planning to bring five of these aircraft back into service next July, 12 months ahead of schedule, and use them for SYD-LAX and SYD-SIN-LHR. They will be bringing back 10 of their 12 A380s and retiring the other two. Qantas has written off the value of these aircraft in their losses over the last two fiscal years, so there are only the operational costs to fly them.

My take on this is that they think the plan is feasible, but they are also putting pressure on the federal and state governments to carry through on the reopening schedule. Being vaccinated is part of the Qantas plan for the future of international air travel, and I think they are also signalling to the travelling public that they will need to have their jabs if they want to fly. The mood in some states is shifting, and by December most of them could be happy for the amount of opening that the Qantas plan involves, although WA and perhaps Qld may not.

Ben at OMAAT is one of the 'unrealistic' voices out there, here's his take on it.

https://onemileatatime.com/news/qantas-unrealistic-plan-restart-international-flights/

[+ tassojunior]

2 hours ago, mike carey said:

I haven't heard anything like that, but if she did, it wouldn't be in that sort of context. Most likely it would have bee avoid close contact with people outside your household, including your neighbours, not don't speak over your back fence.

“Stay local, do not congregate, don’t talk to your neighbours, please, keep to your bubble,”

Aus and NZ are still under 30% vaccinated? That's a horrible failure to appear in public much less say that.