Covid-19 prevention: what works and what doesn't

[Guest]

I got this e-mail from the New York Times this morning. I apologize for the length, but I don't know how to link it. UC Berkeley's ban on outdoor exercise is particularly nutso, not supported by science, and counter-productive!

"In a public health emergency, absolutism is a very tempting response: People should cease all behavior that creates additional risk.

 

That instinct led to calls for gay men to stop having sex during the AIDS crisis. It has also spurred campaigns for teen abstinence, to reduce sexually transmitted diseases and pregnancies. And to fight obesity, people have been drawn to fads like the elimination of trans fats or carbohydrates.

 

These days, there is a new absolutist health fad: the discouragement — or even prohibition — of any behavior that seems to increase the risk of coronavirus infection, even minutely.

 

People continue to scream at joggers, walkers and cyclists who are not wearing masks. The University of California, Berkeley, this week banned outdoor exercise, masked or not, saying, “The risk is real.” The University of Massachusetts Amherst has banned outdoor walks. It encouraged students to get exercise by “accessing food and participating in twice-weekly Covid testing.”

 

A related trend is “hygiene theater,” as Derek Thompson of The Atlantic described it: The New York City subway system closes every night, for example, so that workers can perform a deep cleaning.

 

There are two big questions to ask about these actions: How much are they doing to reduce the spread of the virus? And do they have any downside?

 

No documented cases

The answer to the first question, according to many experts, is: They seem to do little good. Prohibiting outdoor activity is unlikely to reduce the spread of the virus, nor is urging people always to wear a mask outdoors.

 

Worldwide, scientists have not documented any instances of outdoor transmission unless people were in close conversation, Dr. Muge Cevik, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, told me. “The small number of cases where outdoor transmission might have occurred,” she wrote on Twitter, “were associated with close interactions, particularly extended duration, or settings where people mixed indoors alongside an outdoor setting.” The new variants of the virus are more contagious, but there is no evidence to suggest they will change this pattern.

The short answer is: because we are human.

 

Taking every possible precaution is unrealistic, just as telling all gay men and teenagers to abstain from sex was unrealistic. Human beings are social creatures who crave connection and pleasure and who cannot minimize danger at all times.

 

Despite the risks, we eat carbs, drink wine, go sledding and even ride in automobiles. We enjoy taking outdoor walks and drinking a cup of coffee on a public bench. Many people who exercise find it difficult to do so in a mask. “It feels a bit like suffocating,” Shannon Palus wrote in Slate.

 

I’ve noticed that some of the clearest voices against Covid absolutism are researchers who have spent much of their careers studying HIV, including Cevik, Julia Marcus, Sarit Golub and Aaron Richterman. They know the history. The demonization of sex during the AIDS crisis contributed to more unsafe sex. If all sex is bad, why focus on safe sex?

 

There is a similar dynamic with Covid. “People do not have unlimited energy, so we should ask them to be vigilant where it matters most,” Cevik has written.

 

Telling Americans to wear masks when they’re unnecessary undermines efforts to persuade more people to wear masks where they are vital. Remember: Americans are not doing a particularly good job of wearing masks when they make a big difference, indoors and when people are close together outdoors.

 

Banning college students from outdoor walks won’t make them stay inside their dorm rooms for weeks on end. But it probably will increase the chances that they surreptitiously gather indoors.

 

And spending money on deep cleaning leaves less money for safety measures that will protect people, like faster vaccination.

 

“Rules that are really more about showing that you’re doing something versus doing something that’s actually effective” are counterproductive, Marcus told my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick. “Trust is the currency of public health.”"

Edited February 12, 2021 by Unicorn

[OCClient]

Chris Christie was infected outdoors, at a Rose Garden ceremony, where masks were not worn. Folks need to stay mindful of every risk they take, and not buy into these generalizations that are easily misunderstood.

 

Chris Christie Reveals Regrets After Battling COVID-19: ‘I Was Wrong To Not Wear A Mask’

[Guest]

Chris Christie was infected outdoors, at a Rose Garden ceremony, where masks were not worn. Folks need to stay mindful of every risk they take, and not buy into these generalizations that are easily misunderstood.

 

Chris Christie Reveals Regrets After Battling COVID-19: ‘I Was Wrong To Not Wear A Mask’

“The small number of cases where outdoor transmission might have occurred,” she wrote on Twitter, “were associated with close interactions, particularly extended duration, or settings where people mixed indoors alongside an outdoor setting.”

 

So, yes, if you sit shoulder to shoulder next to someone for 30 minutes, and are jabbering face to face for prolonged periods, you're putting yourself at risk, obviously. Minimum time when outdoors was 15 minutes together. The take-home message is that you can't get it just walking past someone (or, even more ridiculously, running or bicycling past someone).

[OCClient]

Here is a doctor from California that is an anti masker.

 

For me, I am cautious about anyone that makes sweeping generalizations about COVID, especially when the information seems to go against common sense.

 

I wish this Forum would regulate a little bit better the kind of information about COVID that is allowed.

 

For now, beware of what you hear.

 

This is anti mask Doctor Jeffrey Barke of Hoag Hospital, or at least he was from Hoag.

.

[Islesguy]

Chris Christie was infected outdoors, at a Rose Garden ceremony, where masks were not worn. Folks need to stay mindful of every risk they take, and not buy into these generalizations that are easily misunderstood.

 

Chris Christie Reveals Regrets After Battling COVID-19: ‘I Was Wrong To Not Wear A Mask’

Two things. One, he never mentions whether or not he spent time at the indoor events at COVID Barrett announcement; and two, he could have gotten the virus at debate prep sessions. I find much more likely he got it at either one of those places than in the Rose Garden.

[Guest]

Here is a doctor from California that is an anti masker.

 

For me, I am cautious about anyone that makes sweeping generalizations about COVID, especially when the information seems to go against common sense.

...

Obviously, one has to look at the credibility of the source. An anti-masker is almost certainly going to be a nut who doesn't use science to guide his opinions. The opinion of a scientist whose work involves investigating Covid-19 transmission obviously carries infinitely more weight. I have previously provided links to published studies in peer reviewed journals which have also examined transmission and the studies show that outdoor transmission occurs rarely and only when there is prolonged close contact. If there is something you wish to dispute about the findings, state what specifically you have a problem with and why. In other words, what is it about the studies that you disbelieve. To simply state you don't believe the findings because you don't want to believe it (or because you know someone who agrees with you) is simply rather childish.

It's sad that a lot of effort has gone into studying transmission, and that the work is often disregarded for no valid reason.

[+ harey]

Gurl, no. What is your real intention here? Are you an anti-masker? We all know what works and the only confusion is coming from the fringes.