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Brazil COVID vaccine plans


SirBillybob
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Looks like Brazil is forging ahead with UK-based Oxford-AstraZeneca’s vaccine as its first line vaccine, while the UK is forging ahead with US-Germany based Pfizer-BioNTech’s product (manufactured in Belgium) for its initial rollout.

 

Not surprising for Brazil given the cold-storage challenges for a nation in tropical/subtropical climate along with a vast size and scattering of remote areas.

 

———

 

Addendum: the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been officially ruled out for Brazil.

Edited by SirBIllybob
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Looks like Brazil is forging ahead with UK-based Oxford-AstraZeneca’s vaccine as its first line vaccine, while the UK is forging ahead with US-Germany based Pfizer-BioNTech’s product (manufactured in Belgium) for its initial rollout.

 

Not surprising for Brazil given the cold-storage challenges for a nation in tropical/subtropical climate along with a vast size and scattering of remote areas.

 

———

 

Addendum: the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been officially ruled out for Brazil.

It has been interesting to see the approaches applied by the various countries. I wonder if the Russian made vaccine is available in Cuba??

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Cute. Anyone’s guess.

 

Actually, if Cuba makes like Sputnik and remains spaced from other nations it does not urgently need a vaccine, having had only 1 case per 1,390 population and 1 death per 83,000 population. It is not improbable that the overall death rate will be lower because of the lack of tourists potentially bringing seasonal influenza into the country.

 

It is somewhat of a powerhouse in general vaccine development and has a few of its own candidates that will not easily be studied within its own population because the case incidence is too low, and it lacks the resources to launch Phase 3 trials in other countries.

 

Cuba’s COVID crisis is more economic than health-related, with drastic food shortages. Queues for food far exceed those of coronavirus testing. Getting back on its feet will hinge on eventual incoming tourists that will have had vaccination accomplished. Canadian snowbirds are a big source of tourism revenue but it will be at least a year before that occurs. I wonder if the global shake-up will alter US-Cuba relations in a way that assists Cuba to recover.

 

Until Cuba regains sufficient capital to perhaps be able to import a vaccine it will likely be among those countries relying on the global COVAX initiative.

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So, back to Brazil ...

 

Talk about all over the place.

 

The state of São Paulo may be utilizing the CoronaVac vaccine, a China-Brazil collaboration, administering it on an emergency basis starting in January, because it will be able to access and assemble the constituent elements very quickly.

 

Brazil, mainly healthcare workers there, has been one of the major Phase 3 study locations but there are no efficacy results yet released. Apparently the threshold number of infection cases has been reached, or will be soon, and we should see the data imminently.

 

São Paulo represents a one-fifth share of the nation’s population.

Edited by SirBIllybob
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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

I'm looking at Carnival in Rio this year. It's been moved from Feb to July 2021. I plan/hope to be fully vaccinated by then. I've avoided COVID this long, I can wait a bit longer.

I've just started looking at the vaccine data in Brazil (I work in research) and I'm not fully up to speed on the AstraZeneca vaccine they'll be seeking approval for in about 2 weeks. BUT it appears to only be 50-60% effective after 2 doses. They also appear to be seeking full approval rather than Emergency Use authorization (not sure why other than saying the process is onerous in Brazil). Even so they expect to have 100 million doses by mid-2021, so roughly enough for a quarter of the population to receive 2 doses.

High level take away - I'd wait a few months to see how things shake out. I'm anxious as anyone, but also realize the way to beat this virus is to break the chain(s) of transmission either via vaccine or reduced movement through the population (i.e. stay home).

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I'm looking at Carnival in Rio this year. It's been moved from Feb to July 2021. I plan/hope to be fully vaccinated by then. I've avoided COVID this long, I can wait a bit longer.

I've just started looking at the vaccine data in Brazil (I work in research) and I'm not fully up to speed on the AstraZeneca vaccine they'll be seeking approval for in about 2 weeks. BUT it appears to only be 50-60% effective after 2 doses.

——

90% effective with initial half dose and follow up full dose. Note that there was a lot of controversy because the optimal dose was ascertained serendipitously, essentially through dosage error throughout the trial.

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Update on the Chinese-Brazilian CoronaVac vaccine collaboration and São Paulo state’s advocacy for this product ... my take on what is occurring:

 

The efficacy in Brazil is at least 50%. It is not 90%. The exact figure, somewhere between 50 and 90%, is known but not yet released. Evidently, the China-based company is enforcing the contractual obligation to allow the company to collate results from the various study locations before specific regional results are presented.

 

The Turkey study location results suggest 91% efficacy. Because it is not in the inside lane of the race and the company would likely not delay sharing really positive results, it may be that discrepancies among the study locations’ trial results will need to be reconciled.

 

Another optical tactic could be to now suggest the possibility of the minimally acceptable low end of the range (50%), alerting the Anvisa or judicial authorities to be on notice for approval, followed by a higher actual result that falls considerably short of the optimal 90% but is more decent than 50%.

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  • 2 weeks later...

CoronaVac has been deemed to have 78% efficacy within the Brazilian research cohort and will likely be approved soon and even manufactured there. A good record, as well, in terms of severity where breakthrough infections occurred in the vaccine arm of the study.

 

São Paulo state will possibly see the CoronaVac implementation ramped up there faster than in the country overall. Brazil is at the same time seeking the AstraZeneca vaccine from that product’s manufacturing hub in India.

Edited by SirBIllybob
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The CoronaVac, when the data were not manipulated to exclude mild but transmissible cases of infection, actually is reported to have about 50% efficacy, with 2:1 ratio of CoV cases comparing placebo to vaccine and a rather high incidence of overall incidence relative to Brazil’s overall population over the 4-month duration of the trial.

 

The Brazilian approval authority Anvisa is to meet this weekend to review both CoronoVac and AstraZeneca’s vaccine Covishield. However, both companies have received notice, even as recent as yesterday, that there remain many data components and unanswered questions that Anvisa wants resolved prior to decision.

 

At this point, if both are approved it is likely that São Paulo state will utilize CoronaVac. The net benefit conferred might not be much better than either the incidence rate when it was one-third current case prevalence or the alleviation of mitigation measures by a factor of two-thirds.

Edited by SirBIllybob
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Not to mention that the apparent existence of two CoV variants from Brazil, worrisome due to possible ‘escape’ capacity in relation to previous case natural immunity and/or vaccine products under review, may prompt a growing number of countries to fortify their barriers against it.

 

Britain has wisely slammed the door on South America (even Brazilian transit potential thru Portugal) while trying to figure out the mutation distinctions and commonalities among the UK, South Africa, and Brazil variants as well as their migration patterns.

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