The end to COVID?

[HoseMaster]

I have done my best to respect the diverse opinions regarding COVID-19 over these past few months, however the ER nurse that posted this brilliantly sums up my train of thought :

 

Please just take politics out of it and read this with an open mind using common sense.

 

"Anyone out there who can tell me what our end game is with the covid 19?

 

What is the magic formula that is going to allow us to sound the all clear?

 

Is it zero cases?

 

The only way that will happen is if we just stop testing and stop reporting.

 

Is it a vaccine?

 

It took 25 years for a chicken pox vaccine to be developed.

The smallpox inoculation was discovered in 1796 the last known natural case was in 1977.

 

We have a flu vaccine that is only 40 to 60% effective and less than half of the US population choose to get one, and roughly 20,000 Americans will die of the flu or flu complications.

 

Oh, you'll mandate it, like other vaccines are mandated in order to attend school, travel to some foreign countries, etc.

 

We already have a growing number of anti vaxxers refusing proven, tested, well known vaccines that have been administered for decades but aren’t necessarily safe!

 

Do you really think people will flock to get a fast tracked, quickly tested vaccine, whose long term side effects and overall efficacy are anyone's best guess?

 

How long are we going to cancel and postpone and reconsider?

You aren't doing in person school until second quarter?

 

What if October's numbers are the same as August's?

 

You moved football to spring?

 

What if next March is worse than this one was?

 

When do we decide quality of life outweighs the risks?

 

I understand Covid can be deadly or very dangerous for SOME people, but so are strawberries and so is shellfish.

 

We take risks multiple times a day without a second thought.

We know driving a car can be dangerous, we don't leave it in the garage. Many speed and don't wear seat belts.

 

We know the dangers of smoking, drinking and eating fried foods, we do it anyway.

 

Is hugging Grandma really more dangerous than rush hour on the freeway?

 

Is going out with friends after work more risky than 4 day old gas station sushi?

 

Or operating a chainsaw?

 

When and how did we so quickly lose our free will and give up our liberty?

 

Is there a waiver somewhere I can sign that says, "I understand the risks, but I choose a life with Hugs and Smiles, and the State Fair and go to Church and go hug my Mom in her retirement home?

 

I understand that there is a minuscule possibility I could die, but I will most likely end up feeling like crap for a few days.

 

I understand I could possibly pass it to someone else, if I'm not careful, but I can pass any virus onto someone else.

 

I'm struggling to see where or how this ends.

 

We either get busy living or we get busy dying.

 

When God decides it's your time, you don't get any mulligans, so I guess I would rather spend my time enjoying it and living in the moment and not worrying about what ifs and maybes, and I bet I'm not the only one.

[Daverwr]

Well said.... er, written. I’ve been thinking many of these statements. When or how will it end?

[+ 7829V]

I'm not a medical expert... just based on what I read online I would say that it would end when:

 

1. Hospitals can handle all covid-19 cases without the need of decide who lives and who dies (because they don't have enough ventilators).

 

2. Enough tests, where you know very quick if you are infected or not.

 

3. When there's an effective protocol to treat the symptoms of covid-19

 

4. When there's an effective vaccine

[HoseMaster]

I'm not a medical expert... just based on what I read online I would say that it would end when:

 

1. Hospitals can handle all covid-19 cases without the need of decide who lives and who dies (because they don't have enough ventilators).

 

2. Enough tests, where you know very quick if you are infected or not.

 

3. When there's an effective protocol to treat the symptoms of covid-19

 

4. When there's an effective vaccine

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if people can be reinfected so quickly as they say they are allegedly reporting, a vaccine is kinda useless.

[+ 7829V]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if people can be reinfected so quickly as they say they are allegedly reporting, a vaccine is kinda useless.

that’s why we need an ubiquitous rapid test. Where you can know in minutes if you have the virus.

[Luv2play]

I would take issue with the title of the post containing the word lockdown. It suggests we are currently living under an order to stay quarantined at home in isolation. There are many restrictions worldwide that vary according to local conditions. A Relatively small number of people worldwide have been totally locked down. The rest of us are navigating limitations on what we do and what we can’t do. I see this lasting for several years, at varying levels of restraints.

[big-n-tall]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if people can be reinfected so quickly as they say they are allegedly reporting, a vaccine is kinda useless.

 

The earlier reports of people getting reinfected was met with some skepticism. It was suggested people where still suffering symptoms from the initial infection after it seemed they had gotten over it. With that said, there was a few recent cases of people being reinfected with a different strain of Covid than they got initially infected with. I haven't read anything about how quickly someone can be reinfected with the same strain, if at all.

 

Each person has to accept their own level of comfort with anything that can be a risk.

[+ keroscenefire]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if people can be reinfected so quickly as they say they are allegedly reporting, a vaccine is kinda useless.

 

The number of people reinfected with COVID is actually pretty low. I mean it's so rare that when it does happen it makes the news. It also appears that many of the verified cases of COVID reinfection were actually asymptomatic and the handful that has severe COVID reinfection in many cases had some unusual circumstances (one also had lymphoma for example).

 

Some people are worried because it appears that COVID antibodies wane fairly quickly after infection (usually in just a few months). But the reality is that antibodies typically wane after many viral infections and it's not unusual for that to happen with COVID. But antibodies are only a part of the body's immune response. We also have memory B-Cells and T-cells that can attack the COVID virus quickly on reinfection. In fact most vaccines don't actually use antibodies at all and instead activate our B and T immune cells to stop the virus. COVID infection appears to create strong T and B cell immune response that looks to last much longer than COVID antibodies. This is good news for a potential vaccine and this would seemingly be how most COVID vaccines would work. It's possible we may need to have booster shots for COVID every few years if the immunity wanes or if the virus mutates significantly, but I am confident with Anthony Fauci's claim that a vaccine will be coming pretty soon and be widely available in 2021. The end of all of this is soon. But we have to get through a "dark" winter first.

Edited November 9, 2020 by keroscenefire

[orville]

Most people tend to be SO VERY SELF-CENTERED, that they need to be reminded of what HUMANITY has gone through HISTORY.

It really pisses me off when some start bitching around because they have to wear masks, or can't meet friends every weekend.

The only reason why Pandemics don't kill us in greater numbers now is just because health science has evolved exponentially.

Not sure if it really took 25 years for Small Pox Vaccine but it took roughly 10 years to develop ARVs (and 10 more for PrEP)

Millions have died in every pandemic and those people won't come back. People learned to live with restrictions in every case.

So, could you please STFU and do your part to prevent others from dying, just like everyone else?

 

PS: The below chart is outdated. Covid has now killed more than 1.3M so it has proven to be deadlier than 12 other plagues in history.

Even with all restrictions, the death toll keeps growing now closer to the 17th Century Great Plagues, Antoine Plague, The 3rd Plague. and HIV/AIDS.

 

width=848pxhttps://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fsouthfront.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F03%2FHistory-of-Pandemics2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1[/img]

Edited November 9, 2020 by orville

[Guest]

...

 

I understand that there is a minuscule possibility I could die, but I will most likely end up feeling like crap for a few days.

 

I understand I could possibly pass it to someone else, if I'm not careful, but I can pass any virus onto someone else.

...

I understand that you're probably in a low-risk group, or you wouldn't have posted this, but not every one is. I understand that you don't care that you could pass it on to someone who's is a high-risk group, such as my 90 year-old step-mother, but hopefully there are other people who care about others who may be more vulnerable than they are. The answer to your original question is that we will probably need to be careful, to avoid killing people needlessly, until a safe and effective vaccine is found, and is widely available to anyone who wants it. This way we won't have to ration hospital beds and ventilators. And not "any virus" kills somewhere between 1 in 200 to 1 in 400 people who gets it, and maims many others.

[MscleLovr]

Professor Ugur Sahin, co-founder of BioNTech (the partner with Pfizer in developing the vaccine) was interviewed at length on BBC TV this morning.

 

The UK Govt has bought 40 million doses of the vaccine and expects to receive 10 million doses before the end of the year. The vaccine is given in 2 doses, 3 weeks apart. IF, and that’s a big if, the vaccine is approved by the Medical Regulator in the UK, the NHS has plans to roll out the vaccine starting next month. The UK Govt has been keen to downplay the importance of the vaccine but says it’s “hope and not hype”.

 

Prof Sahin said generally the vaccine would be delivered at the "end of this year, beginning of next year". His goal is to deliver more than 300 million doses worldwide by April 2021 which "could allow us to only start to make an impact". He added that "the infection rate will go down in the summer…absolutely essential is that we get a high vaccination rate until or before autumn/winter next year."

[nomad]

People are kidding themselves thinking that they don't need to worry and betting even if they get sick a vaccine will make them all better. There is no guarantee the virus will not mutate and make the vaccine a lot less effective. This is why the flu vaccine constantly has to change and even then, the vaccine that is chosen is a best scientific guess at the dominant strain of the virus in a given year. The 2017-2018 vaccine wasn't the right strain and resulted in one of the worst flu seasons in a decade. Covid has multiple strains also and this has not been widely reported in the news.

[mike carey]

People are kidding themselves thinking that they don't need to worry and betting even if they get sick a vaccine will make them all better. There is no guarantee the virus will not mutate and make the vaccine a lot less effective. This is why the flu vaccine constantly has to change and even then, the vaccine that is chosen is a best scientific guess at the dominant strain of the virus in a given year. The 2017-2018 vaccine wasn't the right strain and resulted in one of the worst flu seasons in a decade. Covid has multiple strains also and this has not been widely reported in the news.

This speaks to a lot of the unknowns about the virus. We don't know how effective a vaccine, or this vaccine in particular, will be and we don't know how long any immunity will last. We also don't know how variable the virus is and whether the pattern of protection it provides from the virus will be like the flu (endlessly changing) or like measles (consistent) or somewhere in between the two. What we do know, is that if it provides any level of protection, either from transmission or from serious disease, that will reduce the spread of the virus and complement the social distancing and mask wearing that have the same effect. Any reduction of its spread is a good thing.

[samhexum]

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that it will still be necessary to social distance, wear masks and take other COVID-19 precautions after a vaccine becomes available to Americans.

 

“I would recommend to people to not to abandon all public health measures just because you’ve been vaccinated,” Fauci told CNN anchor Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

 

“Because even though for the general population it might be 90 to 95 percent effective, you don’t necessarily know for you how effective it is.”

 

The Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases added that once he receives a vaccine, he still won’t feel comfortable completely letting down his guard.

 

“I can feel more relaxed in essentially not having the stringency that we have right now, but I think abandoning it completely would not be a good idea,” Fauci said.

[+ WilliamM]

Thanks, @samhexum

[+ keroscenefire]

We need to remember that mutations are just as likely to hinder the virus as help it. Mutations in the SARS virus during that pandemic actually encouraged that virus to die out. Interestingly, the more recent mutations to COVID-19 that make it more contagious, may also make it more susceptible to a vaccine. The big takeaway from the vaccine should be that it could promote herd immunity without getting their through "natural herd immunity," which would cost millions of deaths when it's all done (yes this is true even if the virus fatality rate is only 1 percent). If we could get 60-70 percent of a population with immunity through vaccination, then COVID just wouldn't have many people to infect and would start to die out in many places. It may never go away...certainly it could be like measles or the flu where we see little outbreaks here and there (in part because of so many anti-vaxxers), but it wouldn't spread the way it is now. It's possible we might have to get a booster COVID vaccine every few years to adjust for any mutations of the virus (although COVID does not appear to mutate as quickly as the flu, which actually is notorious for quickly and easily mutating year to year). Or it truly could be like SARS and just disappear. We just don't know yet.

[alexthompson]

I wear my mask and limit my exposure, but I still see friends and go out in the world. However, I have acquaintances who only go to the grocery store at 7 am, and won't even meet for coffee. I truly wonder when they feel it will be "safe" enough to leave their homes.

 

What is your threshold these days?

 

I get massages and went to a Halloween party where we all had to get Covid tests...but I probably wouldn't go to Disneyland or a Korean spa.

[samhexum]

It may never go away...

 

Jeez, haven't you listened to our intrepid leader at all this year? One day (very soon) it's just going to go away (like magic!) We're rounding the corner right now, in fact...

 

I have acquaintances who only go to the grocery store at 7 am

 

Ahem... senior hour begins at 6 AM, though I'm planning a 2 or 3 AM visit in the next couple of days to my 24 hour store.

 

(I'm not a senior quite yet, but I'm disabled, with lung issues, so I'm allowed to go during the senior hour.)

Edited November 15, 2020 by samhexum

[SirBillybob]

I believe that the Pfizer/BioNTech participants will be tracked for another 2 years. I expect that long before that time the placebo arm will be unblinded as they should not be denied vaccination, and the vaxx arm will be unblinded and followed for durability of immunity (bio-markers + infection incidence).

 

In general, I hope that in 2 years we will know more about the potential for vaccinated individuals to host, shed, transmit, acquire infection, as well as updated severity/mortality data that guides precaution standards.

 

I bought masks, sanitizer, and commenced thinking about mitigation 9 months ago. It seems that the time has passed quickly.

 

Unfortunately, there is a substantial gap on the continuum between the actually intrusive measures I find reasonably tolerable or adaptable versus the exposure risks (notwithstanding eventual vaccination) posed by my desire to squander a large amount of liquidated funds on trade.

Edited November 15, 2020 by SirBIllybob

[Guest]

People are kidding themselves thinking that they don't need to worry and betting even if they get sick a vaccine will make them all better. There is no guarantee the virus will not mutate and make the vaccine a lot less effective. This is why the flu vaccine constantly has to change and even then, the vaccine that is chosen is a best scientific guess at the dominant strain of the virus in a given year. The 2017-2018 vaccine wasn't the right strain and resulted in one of the worst flu seasons in a decade. Covid has multiple strains also and this has not been widely reported in the news.

Influenza viruses have a notoriously high mutation rate, that I don't think is seen in other viruses. I can't think of any virus that mutates as much as the influenza virus, and certainly no immunization that needs to be redone every year due to the mutation rate. I did contract influenza (I believe--I was so sick I could barely get out of bed to go to the bathroom) in 2018 despite having receive that (poorly-effective) vaccine. No way to know for sure, but the current vaccines in development seem to have high efficacy regardless of the Covid-19 strain, so I doubt they'll lack efficacy when they roll out. It will take time, even when a safe and effective vaccine(s) is/are approved.

Front-line workers will probably receive first priority, then vulnerable populations such as the elderly, asthmatics, COPD, diabetics. The general population will come last. Once the vaccine is available to all, I personally will not feel compelled to keep wearing my mask, unless required to do so. If anti-vaxxers simply choose not to get vaccinated, I see no need to inconvenience myself to protect those with delusions that they know more than the public health experts.

[orville]

If anti-vaxxers simply choose not to get vaccinated, I see no need to inconvenience myself to protect those with delusions that they know more than the public health experts.

I'm hopeful that antivaxxers and their descendants will slowly decrease in numbers in 3 to 4 generations, thanks to "natural selection".

[+ sync]

I wear a mask and social distance, but I am currently a Covid-19 antivaxxer. I am a resident of New York State, and I intend to resist the vaccine until Governor Cuomo gives it the green light. My resistance is fortified by my fearful mistrust of anyone/anything that aligns with Donald Trump.

[samhexum]

The end to COVID?

 

Shouldn't we also have a thread entitled "Still right smack in the middle of Covid"?

 

Coronavirus outbreak at Kentucky veterans center sickens 86, kills 24

 

North Dakota governor finally issues mask mandate as COVID crushes state

 

Many in Midwest take COVID surge in stride: ‘If I get it, I get it’

 

New Mexico issues stay-at-home order as COVID cases spike

 

I am a resident of New York State, and I intend to resist the vaccine until Governor Cuomo gives it the green light. My resistance is fortified by my fearful mistrust of anyone/anything that aligns with Donald Trump.

 

'Operation Warp Speed’ gets a slow burn from ‘Star Trek’s’ George Takei

 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by samhexum

[marylander1940]

I wear a mask and social distance, but I am currently a Covid-19 antivaxxer. I am a resident of New York State, and I intend to resist the vaccine until Governor Cuomo gives it the green light. My resistance is fortified by my fearful mistrust of anyone/anything that aligns with Donald Trump.

 

Sir, you're not antivaxxer... just like you wouldn't inject/drink bleach as Trump told us to do.

 

Whenever Fauci likes a vaccine I'll take it!

[+ Charlie]

I wear a mask inside any building where I will encounter other people, except my own home and one neighboring home, because we have essentially formed a pod with that neighbor couple. The only people besides those neighbors who have been inside our house since March are service people (electrician, plumber, etc.) and I wear a mask and expect them to do so. I go to any store that is open, but I will eat only outside at a restaurant. I do not wear a mask outdoors, but have one with me to put on if I encounter anyone. I do not carry anyone in my car except my spouse and the aforementioned neighbors, unless we are both masked and the drive is very short, with windows open. I do not go to parties or any kind of gathering, indoors or outdoors, except that I do play tennis outdoors unmasked, usually with the same partners, and between games we sit socially distanced. I will not fly or use public transport. We have made only one weekend trip away from home since February, and we stayed in a rented cabin and brought our food with us or got take-out, except for one meal on a restaurant's outdoor patio.

 

I expect that we will relax these practices somewhat once a vaccine becomes available, but we are still unlikely to take part in group social activities for a long time.