A vaccine may not be forthcoming.

[+ purplekow]

I just read an article from the Journal of Virology from October 2011 concerning the development of a Coronavirus vaccine,. Yes 2011. In that article, it predicts the need for a vaccine and speaks to the difficulties in producing a vaccine. Much of the article is above my pay grade and might be beyond yours too. The main aspect of producing a coronavirus vaccine of which I was unaware, is antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). While some antibodies prevent the movement into the cells of the coVid virus through the main gateway, there are some coronaviruses that actually attach to the antibodies produced as a result of the vaccine and the antibody=virus complex finds a side door into the cells that the virus by itself cannot use. So that giving the vaccine actually allows the antibodies formed to facilitate further destruction by the virus. This is not true of all coronaviruses but it presents another hurdle to the manufacturing of a vaccine. Testing will need to be done not only to prove that a vaccine is beneficial,, but that it has to test that is not detrimental.

The fact that there has been work on a vaccine since 2011 is a double edged sword. Among the negatives are that they have not found one yet so 10 years of research has not done what we are being told will be accomplished in the next few months to a year and one half. The good news is that there has been a lot of ground work done and pitfalls have been recognized.

The take home message from this: a vaccine is not a new idea, it has not been developed over a decade of work, it might make things worse in some cases, but at least we are not starting from ground zero.

[+ honcho]

... While some antibodies prevent the movement into the cells of the coVid virus through the main gateway, there are some coronaviruses that actually attach to the antibodies produced as a result of the vaccine and the antibody=virus complex finds a side door into the cells that the virus by itself cannot use...

The fact that there has been work on a vaccine since 2011 is a double edged sword. Among the negatives are that they have not found one yet so 10 years of research has not done what we are being told will be accomplished in the next few months to a year and one half. The good news is that there has been a lot of ground work done and pitfalls have been recognized.

 

If not a vaccine, I'm wondering if they might come up with some therapeutics as for HIV - they don't have a vaccine for it either, now after nearly 40 years, but some of the drugs to control it seem able to prevent infections in most (sadly, but not all) cases, e.g. PrEP ...

[+ Charlie]

Too many people seem to assume that one just has to throw enough money and experts at the project, and a vaccine will be found that will take us back to the old "normal" world within the next year or two. I think it will be more like what happened after 9/11, when many people assumed that we could just somehow eliminate or neutralize all the terrorists and go back to flying without the whole security apparatus, yet we still have the TSA check-ins after almost 20 years. Preparing to co-exist with CoVid-19 may be much more complicated than that.

[RealAvalon]

If not a vaccine, I'm wondering if they might come up with some therapeutics as for HIV - they don't have a vaccine for it either, now after nearly 40 years, but some of the drugs to control it seem able to prevent infections in most (sadly, but not all) cases, e.g. PrEP ...

I expect that it will be treatments to manage the virus impact, will be the more significant drug intervention, same as with HIV. As far as vaccines go, they have a variety of effectiveness depending on the nature of the pathogen.

1. polio - total immunity

2. tetanus - limited with a booster needed

3. HIV and flu - no immunity or limited to certain strains

4. COVID 19 - who knows, but from what we know of this virus so far, I bet it's not total immunity

Edited May 11, 2020 by RealAvalon

[+ Gar1eth]

And the question is what type of vaccine are they making. Possibly it's been noted in articles but I haven't seen any specific mention. But if ends up that only a live (weakened) virus vaccine is effective, then possibly people with weakened immune systems won't be able to get it and will need herd immunity from healthy people getting the vaccine.

 

Gman

[+ WilliamM]

A completely nonsensical point. Trump will just tell us he has a good feeling about whatever vaccine is developed, and (given his expertise) it will prove to be as successful as hydroxychloroquine has in fighting the disease. Stop relying on 'science' and 'experts' and put your faith in the stable genius that leads us.

Excellent point. A cheerleader in the White House.

[+ purplekow]

Excellent point. A cheerleader in the White House.

This is too important a situation to have voices of reason drowned out by non-believers or silenced by exhaustion. If those opposed to science shout to quiet the facts,, the fact givers need to yell louder. It is exhausting. It will take determination and education. What it does not need is resignation. So I beg those who are tired of yelling, to take a deep breath, put on a brave face and be as loud and as truthful as you can be. Stop wasting energy in causes that are lost, such as relying on a change of heart from the present government,

[thickornotatall]

A completely nonsensical point. Trump will just tell us he has a good feeling about whatever vaccine is developed, and (given his expertise) it will prove to be as successful as hydroxychloroquine has in fighting the disease. Stop relying on 'science' and 'experts' and put your faith in the stable genius that leads us.

New Rule ...Never trust Anything Trump Has A Good Feeling About.. I have my own feeling..he wanted to make $$$$ on the miracle drug...hydroxychloroquine...for his family and friends....everything is about $$$$ and TV ratings....Low class tool...

[+ WilliamM]

This is too important a situation to have voices of reason drowned out by non-believers or silenced by exhaustion. If those opposed to science shout to quiet the facts,, the fact givers need to yell louder. It is exhausting. It will take determination and education. What it does not need is resignation. So I beg those who are tired of yelling, to take a deep breath, put on a brave face and be as loud and as truthful as you can be. Stop wasting energy in causes that are lost, such as relying on a change of heart from the present government,

 

What resignation? As to wasting energy on causes that are lost, that May differ for person to person and state to state.

 

More important, one misfired politcal action may help with the next action.

 

Experience is vital for politcal action.

[+ purplekow]

Either I am hallucinating or there was another post on here in which someone said that it was hopeless. That was the resignation to which I was referring. We should not resign ourselves the the loud and uninformed.

[NJF]

Vaccines are not the only hope for the control of covid pandemic. There are several neutralizing antibodies that will go into human trials. Some are monoclonal antibodies from recovered patients. So it can be scaled up if the trial shows benefits against covid-19

[LivingnLA]

A vaccine is an open question. The larger macro issue: this won't be the last pandemic. We need a global research fund for vaccine development. Hopefully, as we learn how to live with covid-19, many new norms will be established. Masks in public as a cultural norm would not only reduce covid-19 transmission, but would also reduce the annual flu and common cold. Many things will probably change whether we are able to develop a vaccine or not.

[+ bigjoey]

Vaccines are not the only hope for the control of covid pandemic. There are several neutralizing antibodies that will go into human trials. Some are monoclonal antibodies from recovered patients. So it can be scaled up if the trial shows benefits against covid-19

 

In the short run while waiting for a vaccine, I think a better hope for cutting the death rate is finding effective treatments for those who require hospitalization. All types of things are being tried. When a nurse this morning told me they were using an IV form of vitamin C, I thought he was joking. However, after doing research, that is indeed true:

https://lpi.oregonstate.edu/COVID19/IV-VitaminC-virus

 

TO BE CLEAR, this has nothing to do with vitamin C supplements that you can buy in a drug store.

 

If effective treatments can be found, like what we have seen with HIV/AIDS, then the virus becomes something that we can live with as a society even if there is no vaccine.

[BSR]

Too many people seem to assume that one just has to throw enough money and experts at the project, and a vaccine will be found that will take us back to the old "normal" world within the next year or two. I think it will be more like what happened after 9/11, when many people assumed that we could just somehow eliminate or neutralize all the terrorists and go back to flying without the whole security apparatus, yet we still have the TSA check-ins after almost 20 years. Preparing to co-exist with CoVid-19 may be much more complicated than that.

 

I wholeheartedly agree. I get anxious when I hear people talk about "when" a vaccine is developed as opposed to the very real possibility that we may never come up with one or at best one with limited immunity. The SARS outbreak was in 2007, MERS in 2017, yet no vaccine for either strain of those coronaviruses has yet been developed.

[Todd Jenkins]

So, how do we 'live life' if no vaccine is ever found? This is all so INCREDIBLY depressing!!!

[McWilson]

Hmmmmm. Maybe there is hope:

https://amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-the-tide-is-coming-for-medicinal-cannabis/a-53371342

[+ bigjoey]

So, how do we 'live life' if no vaccine is ever found? This is all so INCREDIBLY depressing!!!

 

If there are medical treatments for those infected with the virus, life can go on even if there is no vaccine. Think of HIV/AIDS where those infected now have a chronic condition rather than a death sentence. If medical treatments can lower the death rate of those persons hospitalized, then this virus becomes something like the flu. Now keep in mind that tens of thousands still die from the flu each year but we manage to live with it.

[+ Charlie]

So, how do we 'live life' if no vaccine is ever found? This is all so INCREDIBLY depressing!!!

Yes, it is depressing, but the more we learn about how to prevent getting infected, the more likely we will be able to "live with" the presence of the virus, without the extreme of everyone staying home in a bubble except "essential" workers . Regular testing of everyone and isolation of those who are infected until they are no longer infectious would be onerous, but it could be done. There would have to be laws guaranteeing the continued jobs and incomes of those who become infected, and probably special facilities built to accommodate them while they are infectious. The restructuring of society would be clumsy, expensive and would certainly meet resistance for various reasons, but it could happen if there was general agreement that it was more desirable than what we are experiencing now.

[+ g56whiz]

So, how do we 'live life' if no vaccine is ever found? This is all so INCREDIBLY depressing!!!

I refuse to visualize the remainder of my public life behind a mask. I think I’d rather take my chances on herd immunity. Of perhaps I should adopt a male burqa.

[Rudynate]

In the short run while waiting for a vaccine, I think a better hope for cutting the death rate is finding effective treatments for those who require hospitalization. All types of things are being tried. When a nurse this morning told me they were using an IV form of vitamin C, I thought he was joking. However, after doing research, that is indeed true:

https://lpi.oregonstate.edu/COVID19/IV-VitaminC-virus

 

TO BE CLEAR, this has nothing to do with vitamin C supplements that you can buy in a drug store.

 

If effective treatments can be found, like what we have seen with HIV/AIDS, then the virus becomes something that we can live with as a society even if there is no vaccine.

 

 

They're also looking at melatonin. It's supposed to help suppress the cytokine storm

[Todd Jenkins]

I refuse to visualize the remainder of my public life behind a mask. I think I’d rather take my chances on herd immunity. Of perhaps I should adopt a male burqa.

This is me. Let's just live life. And then the moment I say that, I also think: but I don't want it and I don't want to give it to my Mom....

[Rudynate]

I just read an article from the Journal of Virology from October 2011 concerning the development of a Coronavirus vaccine,. Yes 2011. In that article, it predicts the need for a vaccine and speaks to the difficulties in producing a vaccine. Much of the article is above my pay grade and might be beyond yours too. The main aspect of producing a coronavirus vaccine of which I was unaware, is antibody dependent enhancement (ADE). While some antibodies prevent the movement into the cells of the coVid virus through the main gateway, there are some coronaviruses that actually attach to the antibodies produced as a result of the vaccine and the antibody=virus complex finds a side door into the cells that the virus by itself cannot use. So that giving the vaccine actually allows the antibodies formed to facilitate further destruction by the virus. This is not true of all coronaviruses but it presents another hurdle to the manufacturing of a vaccine. Testing will need to be done not only to prove that a vaccine is beneficial,, but that it has to test that is not detrimental.

The fact that there has been work on a vaccine since 2011 is a double edged sword. Among the negatives are that they have not found one yet so 10 years of research has not done what we are being told will be accomplished in the next few months to a year and one half. The good news is that there has been a lot of ground work done and pitfalls have been recognized.

The take home message from this: a vaccine is not a new idea, it has not been developed over a decade of work, it might make things worse in some cases, but at least we are not starting from ground zero.

 

 

One of the things that has hampered development of a coronavirus vaccine is that previous contagions have been wiped out through containment and mitigation. Since the pathogen just goes away after a while, the effort to develop a vaccine is always abandoned.

[LivingnLA]

One of the things that has hampered development of a coronavirus vaccine is that previous contagions have been wiped out through containment and mitigation. Since the pathogen just goes away after a while, the effort to develop a vaccine is always abandoned.

 

Yes, though MERS and SARS have much higher fatality rates so outbreaks have so far burned out with decent containment. This novel coronavirus is much more transmittable. Hopefully we can create a vaccine because it will be with us for years. Either way, we have to learn to live with it and minimize how many die if we want to reduce the damage, including the economic damage. Whether we can develop a vaccine or not, eventually our species will adapt. Ideally, we will have treatments to manage symptoms, reduce deaths, and help the many survivors with lifelong organ damage.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-mers-sars-experts/

Edited May 12, 2020 by LivingnLA

[+ Bryan Dube]

i'm not a doctor, but from what i've been reading about the way successful countries (germany for one) have treated this is that they monitor and provide care for patients who have tested positive, no matter how mild their symptoms are. whereas here in this country, we are telling patients to stay home when they are showing symptoms. and by the time they go out to seek care it is far too late and they are already presenting with a severe case that requires ventilation. it seems to me that we need to completely reexamine how we're managing patients who test positive.

[LivingnLA]

i'm not a doctor, but from what i've been reading about the way successful countries (germany for one) have treated this is that they monitor and provide care for patients who have tested positive, no matter how mild their symptoms are. whereas here in this country, we are telling patients to stay home when they are showing symptoms. and by the time they go out to seek care it is far too late and they are already presenting with a severe case that requires ventilation. it seems to me that we need to completely reexamine how we're managing patients who test positive.

 

The likely bigger driver of success is the large testing and contact tracing efforts in "successful countries" because they identify many asymptomatic cases before they spread the coronavirus far and wide. Here in the USA, testing is so limited that we generally only test people with symptoms and our overemphasis on illusory individual freedom over community good means enough of us resist wearing masks, isolating, distancing, and contact tracing that the virus still moves freely across America. There was a big birthday party in Pasadena not too long ago. One infected person was there coughing without a mask, no one else was wearing a mask or distancing, and multiple people were infected, some became seriously ill.

Edited May 12, 2020 by LivingnLA