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The spread of the Chinese coronavirus

EZEtoGRU

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EZEtoGRU Grand Master

EZEtoGRU

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I'm in HK right now and have been travelling around Asia (mostly by cruise ship) since January 2. Within several days of arriving into the region, news started leaking out about a pneumonia-like virus that was spreading in China....mostly in the central city of Wuhan. At that time there were 5-10 cases but authorities were concerned as it was being described as a SARS-like virus. Fast forward to now: more that 800 cases. At least 25 dead. Cases also reported in Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Japan, and the US. Wuhan and two other Chinese cities on virtual lockdown. Multiple other Chinese cities facing severe travel restrictions. It's about 7:00pm on Friday evening here in HK on the eve before the Chinese New Year and you would never know that the biggest Holiday in China starts in just a few hours. Very little traffic. Very few decorations. Literally everyone wearing masks.

 

China seemed to drag its feet in addressing this illness earlier on. They have lost precious time in limiting the spread. Finally in the last 3 days or so, China has taken major steps to contain the problem. It may be too little too late however. The infection and death numbers are growing alarmingly on a daily basis.

 

I've changed my travel plans to leave for the US on Sunday the 26th instead of on the 29th. If things don't plateau with this illness very quickly, I could see international travel to/from Asia brought to a standstill. I just hope I manage to get out.

 

I wonder (not just for myself) if this is going to be the "big one/flu" that experts have been predicting for decades? Time will tell.

 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-hnk-intl-01-24-20/index.html

Edited by EZEtoGRU
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mike carey Grand Master

mike carey

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It's been figuring prominently in the news here. Border force and NSW Health have increased surveillance at Sydney airport with closer screening of pax on the three weekly flights from Wuhan (China Eastern). With the lockdown in Wuhan yesterday's will be the last flight for some time. So far the authorities are concerned but not alarmed, there have been no cases here yet and a only a handful of people have been tested for the illness. They are saying that it's not highly contagious but they assess that it has a 14 incubation period so the alert will continue. One major hospital has designated responsibility for handling any cases. The surveillance and checks are so far only precautionary and there's no talk of broader travel restrictions.

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paulsf Enthusiast

paulsf

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I’m headed to Hong Kong next weekend on my way to Bangkok and Hanoi. I’ll be there for a few months. I have friends there so we don’t go to big tourist areas frequented by Chinese tourist. I’ll be keeping a close eye on what’s going on. If it blows up in Thailand I’ll look to coming back to the US.

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EZEtoGRU Grand Master

EZEtoGRU

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I’m headed to Hong Kong next weekend on my way to Bangkok and Hanoi. I’ll be there for a few months. I have friends there so we don’t go to big tourist areas frequented by Chinese tourist. I’ll be keeping a close eye on what’s going on. If it blows up in Thailand I’ll look to coming back to the US.

I think the next 7-10 days will be very telling. This is going to be huge or plateau. I fear the former and hope for the later. Some Asian airlines have already instituted flight cancellation policies for people that don't want to travel anymore.

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MscleLovr Grand Master

MscleLovr

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It’s heavily discussed in UK media.

 

China is regarded as having responded very promptly in isolating the large populations (33million estimate) in Wuhan and other nearby cities, that are now effectively closed cities.

 

There’s also been close screening of flights from China for some days. In the UK, 9 people are quarantined for investigation (having travelled from Wuhan) while 4 people who had been in Wuhan and were thought to be symptomatic have now been cleared and released.

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Guest

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Thank goodness there are competent people in charge of the USA who can fight a pandemic if necessary! So glad this country respects scientists and facts!

 

Oh wait.

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EZEtoGRU Grand Master

EZEtoGRU

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So far the authorities are concerned but not alarmed, there have been no cases here yet and a only a handful of people have been tested for the illness.

Looks like Australia has four confirmed cases now....mostly in NSW. Things are going to get worse everywhere before they get better. How many days till flights to/from all of China are suspended?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/china-virus-toll-hits-41-australia-reports-first-four-cases-idUSKBN1ZO005?il=0

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mike carey Grand Master

mike carey

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Looks like Australia has four confirmed cases now....mostly in NSW. Things are going to get worse everywhere before they get better. How many days till flights to/from all of China are suspended?

Yes it looks that way. I was only aware of the first case, in Melbourne, but I had been watching sport all evening. No indications so far that the authorities here have been considering restrictions on flights, but that could change quickly.

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I received this email from a clinician specializing in infectious diseases:

 

Epicenter of outbreak is Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. There are approx. 1,300 confirmed cases - which are hospitalized. In such a populous area, there should be many times more hospital capacity over 1,300 needed beds. Why in such a populous area are medical personnel so stressed, supplies dwindling, and hospitals crowded? A doctor working four shifts in a row? (would you want to be that doc's patient?) Building a 1,000 bed medical facility in days! Even if they hospitalized the approx. 8,500 people under observation, those people would not cause dwindling supplies or need "medical care" while under observation.

 

Why has China quarantined a city of 11 million people? ... and "locked down" 14 more cities? ......does not add up. This is more serious than the Chinese Gov't is letting on.

 

In the US, there are now 50 people under observation in 22 states. Having 11 years experience in infectious disease "Oaktown", this scares me the most.

 

So ... if you are out and about, limit your time in public, wash your hands often, don't touch your face, if someone near you coughs or sneezes without covering their nose / mouth turn away, hold your breath and walk away.

 

Edit for a our Trump lovers:

“It’s one person coming in from China,” Trump said in Davos, Switzerland, during an appearance on CNBC. “We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Edited by Oaktown
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I received this email from a clinician specializing in infectious diseases:

 

Epicenter of outbreak is Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. There are approx. 1,300 confirmed cases - which are hospitalized. In such a populous area, there should be many times more hospital capacity over 1,300 needed beds. Why in such a populous area are medical personnel so stressed, supplies dwindling, and hospitals crowded? A doctor working four shifts in a row? (would you want to be that doc's patient?) Building a 1,000 bed medical facility in days! Even if they hospitalized the approx. 8,500 people under observation, those people would not cause dwindling supplies or need "medical care" while under observation.

 

Why has China quarantined a city of 11 million people? ... and "locked down" 14 more cities? ......does not add up. This is more serious than the Chinese Gov't is letting on.

 

In the US, there are now 50 people under observation in 22 states. Having 11 years experience in infectious disease "Oaktown", this scares me the most.

 

So ... if you are out and about, limit your time in public, wash your hands often, don't touch your face, if someone near you coughs or sneezes without covering their nose / mouth turn away, hold your breath and walk away.

 

Edit for a our Trump lovers:

“It’s one person coming in from China,” Trump said in Davos, Switzerland, during an appearance on CNBC. “We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

Edited by Oaktown
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BgMstr4u Veteran

BgMstr4u

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Why has China quarantined a city of 11 million people? ... and "locked down" 14 more cities? ......does not add up. This is more serious than the Chinese Gov't is letting on.

 

This looks a bit like an all or nothing, on or off light switch approach, when what is needed may be much more nuanced. But what kind if knowledge and preparedness would a more focused approach require? This is not a criticism but actually a question. What is needed in this kind of emergency?

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BgMstr4u Veteran

BgMstr4u

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Why has China quarantined a city of 11 million people? ... and "locked down" 14 more cities? ......does not add up. This is more serious than the Chinese Gov't is letting on.

 

This looks a bit like an all or nothing, on or off light switch approach, when what is needed may be much more nuanced. But what kind if knowledge and preparedness would a more focused approach require? This is not a criticism but actually a question. What is needed in this kind of emergency?

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EZEtoGRU Grand Master

EZEtoGRU

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It's Sunday morning now in Asia. 13 new deaths reported overnight for a total of 54 plus 323 new cases for total cases now of 1610. Notable that one of the new deaths was not in the highly affected Hubei Province but rather in Shanghai or Beijing (I can't remember which). Cases now reported in multiple Asian countries and further flung places (Canada, France, US, Australia).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-virus-toll-rises-to-54-dead-more-than-300-new-cases-govt/ar-BBZkvr5?ocid=spartanntp

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EZEtoGRU Grand Master

EZEtoGRU

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It's Sunday morning now in Asia. 13 new deaths reported overnight for a total of 54 plus 323 new cases for total cases now of 1610. Notable that one of the new deaths was not in the highly affected Hubei Province but rather in Shanghai or Beijing (I can't remember which). Cases now reported in multiple Asian countries and further flung places (Canada, France, US, Australia).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-virus-toll-rises-to-54-dead-more-than-300-new-cases-govt/ar-BBZkvr5?ocid=spartanntp

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The politically inclined at the CDC have managed to keep the agency from declaring this an emergency. They've apparently taken a wait and see attitude (or WH orders) which is not much different from the early Chinese response. Scientists know all too well that early and decisive action is necessary to prevent a pandemic, but economic concerns seem to prevail.

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I wonder who, along the social media/viral trail, doctored up that video with the melodramatic/somber "music".......

 

No melodramatic/somber "music" on these videos AZDR:

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-victim-writes-around-shakes-21362578

 

BTW, looks like I picked the right week to stop eating civet cats, voles and wolf badgers. Back to beef and chicken.

Edited by Oaktown
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