bigjoey

A company name. Great products. They have a “hotel line” sold to top hotels. Great quality at a reduced price. The wife of a friend was a rep for that line and I bought my sheets through her. Highly recommended🥇🏆

I have not seen him in a number of years but he’s one of the best. Not just his good looks and great sexual skills but his positive attitude guarantee you a great time. He’s very intelligent and uses his intellect to figure out how to please you. His goal is that you have a good time and you will.

Interesting video on inflation: https://www.facebook.com/reel/2875969319203371?fs=e&s=aEkTS0&mibextid=RgwyXk

And the problem is: we’ll have to wait and only looking back know if he is correct. However, I find it interesting that he hedges his bet. He does not say the market will crash. He puts his prediction in percentage terms. At any given time, a normal investor is saying a stock price has peaked and is selling and another investor is buying because they think it will go up. 50% of the investors are wrong. (I say “normal investor” because there is always some “forced” selling due to death, divorce and debt). Like buying Coke in 1998, the “smart”, short term investor was a seller and the wrong, short term investor was a buyer. At that moment, the outcome was unknown; now, decades later we know who was right.

The problem knowing that you shouldn’t have bought Coke in 1998 and that it would be 15 years before it reached that price level again is you are looking in a rear view mirror. While it’s obvious now, it wasn’t then. At any point in time with the knowledge of the time, decisions need to be made to buy and sell. If you had bought Coke in 1998, looking at its past history, as it dropped the logical thought would have been that this is a temporary setback and will soon return to its upward path. When you take the very long term Buffett view of holding a dividend paying, quality company it seems to work (a long life helps, too). Market timing doesn’t work. I agree with you about real estate. Normally, it’s a great long term investment. One thing that needs to be considered: inflation. To accurately measure any investment return, the return needs to be inflation adjusted. Stocks, bonds and real estate returns to be accurate and to be compared over time must be inflation adjusted. A 10% return now and a 10% return during the high inflation Jimmy Carter years are different.

Thoughts: 1- Buffett’s strategy includes stocks that pay huge dividends year after year: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/best-warren-buffett-dividend-stocks#:~:text=And%20the%20best%20Warren%20Buffett,and%20%244.89%20billion%20in%202020. Getting $6 billion in cash dividends adds value no matter what the market says Berkshire is worth. (At some point, after Buffett dies, I would expect the company to payout some of this largesse.) 2-because many of the Buffett stocks are held decades and the dividends keep flowing, short term ups and downs in the market price of those stocks are not important. Think: Coke. As long as the dividend is “safe” year-to-year change in the stock’s price does not mean much. Buffett holds stocks like HP whose growth potential is limited and the printer machine business declines BUT the ink business is a cash cow and adds to Berkshire’s cash pile💵💰. Instead of trying to “time the market,” the long term certainty has paid off well. Rather than try to run after short term gains with “hot,” flavor of the month stocks, slow and steady has done well. 3-looking at Berkshire’s stock between carefully selected time points is dangerous (and often can produce different results by changing the window) as well as looking in a rear view mirror. A better approach is to be “neutral” and use arbitrary “windows” like 5, 10, 15 or 20 to see how effective an asset holding strategy is. For “seniors”: No matter what theory one uses for buying stocks, personally I believe it is best to be diversified among asset classes and even within any asset class. This will smooth out market ups and downs. For example in the asset class of stocks, I hold mostly great dividend paying stocks but also I hold some stocks that don’t pay dividends but are stocks with a great, long term future (El Pollo Loco- a profitable restaurant chain that’s expanding nationally) or a solid record that produces long term capital gains (O Reilly Automotive).

The answer to the riddle is really easy. The graphs and economic data you list are all aggregate data for an entire economy. No matter what the investment asset purchased (real estate, a bond, a stock), you are buying a singular investment asset and not the aggregate (unless buying an index fund). For buying a specific asset, information about the general economy is interesting but not terribly relevant in making a decision on a specific asset. Example: No matter the interest rate, inflation rate, GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, etc, a specific real estate piece’s value depends more on location, tenant, condition of building, length of lease, local and government policies, why the real estate is for sale, what purpose the buyer has in mind, etc. Aggregate factors in the general economy like interest rates will impact the value to some extent but other factors may over ride the aggregate ones. The same with bonds and stocks. When the aggregate market is hitting new highs, there are usually a few stocks hitting new lows. When stocks in the aggregate market are hitting new lows, there are often a few hitting new highs. The “art” of investing in real estate, bonds or stocks is focusing on a specific asset. Warren Buffett made his mark picking specific stocks and he often is buying when others are selling. He is often buying when aggregate factors are sending sell signals. He holds stocks for the long run and doesn’t sell when aggregate factors send sell signals that the market is going down. Finally, no matter the theory one uses to buy, sell or hold investments, there is a luck factor. We need to acknowledge that no matter how skilled the investor is, luck plays a role.

Warren Buffett on economists buying stocks: https://www.facebook.com/reel/295781309613940?fs=e&s=aEkTS0&mibextid=z9DgKg

No reason there cannot be a moderate middle path between the two extremes and thoughtfully incarcerate those who need it.

👍😁😁

I’m OK but rarely check-in anymore yet alone comment. It’s just not worth the effort and I have a very busy and full life outside the virtual world. I just got tired of trying to defend myself from outright lies, distortions and slander by one verbose poster in particular. He is welcome to continue practicing his Saul Alinsky methods on others and perhaps fool many readers here. I will no longer play his games. It seems he views posting not as a discussion or exchange of ideas but a battle-to-the-death against anything opposing his very partisan beliefs. I may occasionally post or like a comment but otherwise, I’ve got a real life and my time is too valuable to waste with nonsense.

I would hold off on crypto investment right now. From “The Economist” this morning: The summer of crypto’s discontent PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES On Wednesday, Iran will cut off electricity to its 118 authorised crypto-mining firms, hoping to relieve the country’s strained power network. It is a fitting move, as the mood darkens in the wider cryptoverse. The price of bitcoin fell nearly 15% on Saturday alone, triggering some $1bn in liquidation as traders who had borrowed money to make big bets failed to put up more collateral. Other crypto-coins tumbled too, although most have since recovered and the market appears to have stabilised. But bitcoin remains nearly 70% below its peak in November. That is wreaking havoc across the industry. Lenders have suspended withdrawals, hedge funds have failed to meet margin calls and one exchange halted transactions altogether, fearing it might run out of funds. Even giant firms have been hit. Many—notably Coinbase—have announced layoffs of up to 20% of their workforces. This summer of discontent could evolve into a long winter for the fading stars of crypto.

The Frick is an amazing place. Closed for a complete renovation of the house (new HVAC, opening part of the second floor). Currently, the collection is on display on Madison Avenue in the old Whitney. Interesting because you can see the collection in a different way than when it was in the house.

Is the crypto party over? Wonder what your co-workers are saying🤔. https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/investing/bitcoin-price

Agree but I would add the concept of “dollar cost averaging.” https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/dollar-cost-averaging#:~:text=Dollar%2Dcost%20averaging%20can%20help,temptation%20to%20time%20the%20market.